,,,,,, Myfxbook -. , - -, -,, - 60 - - - - - -, -,. - Myfxbook,, .-, 30 .- 60, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY USDCAD, AUDUSD,, 9 -, .- 5,,,, 9 SMA, EMA,, RSI, Stokastisk, MACD, ATR ADI -. - -, EUR, USD .-,, Myfxbook,,, 50.-,,,. - - 5, -.,, Myfxbook -. , Investering -,. ,,. , Investing -,.Myfxbook 12 2017.Takk for tilbakemeldingen, vil videresende den til dev teamet. 11 2017. ,,.Student Rabota 1 2016. ,.Myfxbook 4 2016.Ver oppmerksom på at alle våre tjenester er gratis, og for å fortsette å gi våre brukere den beste service - og brukserfaringen, har vi lagt til annonser i programmet. Vær også oppmerksom på at du kan fjerne annonsene ved å kjøpe et abonnement Hvis du har spørsmål eller trenger informasjon, vennligst kontakt oss på. 2 2016. , Web. Myfxbook 2 2016.Vennligst merk at alle våre tjenester er gratis, og for å fortsette å gi våre brukere den beste service - og brukserfaringen, har vi lagt til annonser i programmet. Vær også oppmerksom på at du kan fjerne annonsene ved å kjøpe en abonnement Hvis du har spørsmål eller trenger informasjon, vennligst kontakt oss på. 10 2017. Veldig dårlig. Myfxbook 11 2017.Vennligst merk at du kan angi egendefinerte varsler ved å trykke på klokkeikonet i kalenderen. Jeg vil videresende din tilbakemelding til dev teamet. Hvis du har spørsmål, er du velkommen til å kontakte oss på. 27 2017. , 70, 3 50.Myfxbook 29 2017.Takk for tilbakemeldingen, vil videresende det til teamet. Hvis du har spørsmål, er du velkommen til å kontakte oss på. 9 2016. ,.Myfxbook 10 2016.Tak for ditt forslag, jeg vil videresende det til dev teamet. 23 2016. 20 20,.Sergey Lukichev 26 2017. 2. 18 2017..Georg Ferdinand 27 2016..Myfxbook 1 2016.Ver oppmerksom på at alle våre tjenester er gratis, og for å fortsette å gi våre brukere den beste service - og brukserfaringen vi har lagt til annonser i programmet. Vær også oppmerksom på at du kan fjerne annonsene ved å kjøpe et abonnement. Hvis du Har du spørsmål eller trenger informasjon, vennligst kontakt oss på. 8 2016. 4, 1400.Myfxbook 9 2016.Takk for tilbakemeldingen, vil videresende til dev team.28 2016. ,,. 2 2016. ,,.Myfxbook 8 2016.Vennligst merk at alle våre tjenester er gratis, og for å fortsette å gi våre brukere den beste service - og brukserfaringen, har vi lagt til annonser i programmet. Vær også oppmerksom på at du kan fjerne annonsene ved å kjøpe en abonnement Hvis du har spørsmål eller trenger informasjon, vennligst kontakt oss på. Vladimir 29 2016..forex kan løse arbeidsledighet problem. General Forex Conversation. forex er veldig nyttig og lønnsomt har ikke noen jobb eller virksomhet og kan ikke få jobb, de kan starte forex virksomhet å tjene kan jobbe i forex for deltid eller full vi gjør forex virksomhet profesjonelt , vi kan bli noen land lov ikke støtter forex virksomhet, forex kan løse vår arbeidsledighet landet har arbeidsledighet problem, og jeg tror at Forex er god måte å løse du enig med meg. Date 26 januar 2013.Relaterte meldinger. Jeg tror mest vanskelig Problemet er når markedet går mot oss, og jeg gjorde analyse av markedet feil. Da bruker jeg scalping-strategi for å løse problemet og gjenopprette tapet av penger på originaltråden her. Noen eller mange handler kan fortsatt behandle forex som deltidsjobb, så noen ganger søker de ekstra inntekt og lønn eller lønn fra deres hovedjobber som backup økonomisk til daglig bruk, forex er risikabelt, det vil bidra til å redusere arbeidsledigheten dersom handelsmann har god ferdighetshandel, men hvis løsere vil det bec. Fore x er et veldig godt inntjeningssted i verden Personen tar Forex-virksomhet og tjener store penger i dette markedet Jeg kan si Forex-inntekt løse vår økonomiske samtykke. Forex kan løse problemet med arbeidsledighet Du kan tjene penger ved Forex trading hvis du har noe å investere For startere 500 USD er nok til å tjene et godt fortjeneste per måned hvis du vet hvordan du skal handle Så handle Forex og skape en bedre fremtid og først ikke glem å lære det først Arbeidsledighet i. ekonomisk krise er et av de største problemene i verden i dagens kontekst så tror du at dette problemet skal løses gjennom forex hvis ja da hvordan er det mulig og hva de fattige landene bør gjøre for å motivere folket til forex-virksomheten Tweet. i tror at forex-virksomheten er riktig spor for å fjerne arbeidsledighetsproblemet i dagsløshetsproblemet øker raskt, tror jeg at forex kan bidra til å fjerne arbeidsløshetsproblemet betydelig hva er din tenkning. Hjelp Full sysselsetting OG prisstabilitet. Fullstendig sysselsetting OG P ris Stabilitet. one vil forklare det empiriske faktum at ufrivillig arbeidsledighet bare er knyttet til penger ved bruk av kontraktsøkonomier. Med andre ord, virkelige økonomier som ikke bruker penger og penger arbeidskontrakter for å organisere produksjon, for eksempel feodalisme, slaveøkonomier, oppdaget South Sea Islanders av Margaret Meed osv. kan ha viktige ikke-lineariteter og til og med en usikker fremtid, men det er aldri et viktig ufrivillig arbeidsløshetsproblem. Slaver er alltid fullt ansatt, så vel som serfere i feodalisme, det bør bemerkes at besetninger av dyr, fiskeskoler mm sammen for å løse de økonomiske problemene i Hva Hvordan For hvem uten å bruke penger, kontrakter eller markeder, står disse dyrene fortsatt overfor komplekse, ikke-lineære problemer i deres søken etter mat og samspill med andre besetninger. Imidlertid lider dyr aldri av ufrivillig arbeidsledighet. Professor Paul Davidson University of Tennessee. Den nåværende monetære systemet kan opprettholde både full sysselsetting og prisstabilitet ov er det korte og lange løp Det vil bli vist at.1 Arbeidsledigheten tilsvarer at det føderale budsjettunderskuddet er for lite, og.2 Verdien av en valuta bestemmes av prisene betalt av den regjeringen. Regjeringen har omfavnet to primære økonomiske mål prisstabilitet og full sysselsetting Ironisk nok har den valgt en pengepolitisk og finanspolitikk som benytter overkapasitet, inkludert arbeidsledighet, for å opprettholde prisstabilitet, og eliminerer muligheten for samtidig å nå begge målene. Denne analysen fokuserer på et helt annet alternativ der regjeringen påtar seg rollen som arbeidsgiver for siste utvei ELR, eliminere ufrivillig arbeidsledighet, og prisstabilitet opprettholdes av regjeringen som begrenser prisen den betaler for det foreslåtte tilleggsarbeidsbassenget. Arbeidsgiveren til siste utvei ELR Alternative. Den amerikanske regjeringen kan fortsette direkte til null arbeidsledighet ved å tilby en offentlig tjeneste jobb til alle som ønsker en som et supplement til curre nt budsjett Videre ved å fastsette lønnen betalt under dette ELR-programmet på et nivå som ikke forstyrrer eksisterende arbeidsmarkeder, det vil si lønnsnivå nær den eksisterende minimumslønnen, kan det forventes materiell prisstabilitet. ELR-programmet tillater eliminering av mange eksisterende statlige velferdsbetalinger for alle som ikke er spesifikt rettet mot unntak, som ønsket av velgerne. Minimumslønnslovgivningen vil ikke lenger være nødvendig Arbeider ville ønske seg sikkerhetsnettet for en garantert jobb, og virksomheten ville gjenkjenne fordelen av et basseng av ledig arbeidskraft det kunne trekke fra med litt spredning til regjeringens lønn til ELR-ansatte I tillegg ville den garanterte tjenestesjobben være motsyklisk påvirkning, automatisk øke regjeringens ansettelse og utgifter som jobber tapt i privat sektor, og redusere statlige arbeidsplasser og bruke som Den private sektoren utvidet. Dette ELR-forslaget på ett nivå ligner arbeidsfare, som har blitt avvist av kongressen, selv om enkelte reformer for statsvern ikke er ulikt arbeidsfare. I motsetning til dette ELR-forslaget kan de statlige programmene imidlertid tjene til å skape en ny klasse av subminimumlønn som erstatter vanlige offentlige ansatte. ELR-forslaget har også egenskaper som ligner på nåværende føderal arbeidsledighet kompensasjon politikk Det er imidlertid betydelige forskjeller som ledighet er 1 kompensasjon er betaling for ikke å jobbe, 2 midlertidig, 3 dekker ikke alle, og 4 er mindre enn den foreslåtte ELR lønn. I tillegg til null arbeidsledighet er det vil bli vist at denne ELR-politikken oppretter prisstabilitet, ikke helt ulikt mange foreslåtte inntektsprinsipper har blitt utformet for å gjøre. Et ELR-program vil likevel stå overfor stiv opposisjon da det gjør det føderale budsjettunderskuddet til å flyte, med stor sannsynlighet for permanent og voksende underskudd For eksempel, ved hjelp av grove estimater, hvis regjeringen ansatt 8 millioner nye offentlige ansatte på, si 12.500 per år, det wo uld være en ny utgift på 100 milliarder kroner. Drakt fra dette en del av ca 50 milliarder kroner som for tiden er brukt på arbeidsledighetskompensasjon, 15 milliarder brukt på AFDC, og over 20 milliarder brukt på matfrimerker som kan bli redusert, og nettet kan være ytterligere 50 milliarder av årlige underskuddsutgifter Derfor vil denne studien først fokusere på hvorfor frykt for underskudd i seg selv er uberettiget. Taksing, utgifter og lån med en ikke-konvertibel valuta. Amerikanske dollar er ikke lovlig konvertibel til noe av staten på etterspørsel Det er imidlertid utpekt av regjeringen som eneste middel for å avlaste føderale skatteforpliktelser. Skatteforpliktelser er en fortsatt gjeld som den private sektoren skylder regjeringen, og de skaper et kontinuerlig behov for dollar. Den private sektoren oppnår de nødvendige dollarene primært som betaling for overføring av virkelige varer og tjenester til regjeringen, og det er offentlige utgifter eller utlån som gir dollarene som trengs for å betale skatt for dette formål analyse, offentlige utgifter inkluderer utgifter av regjeringen eller noen av sine agenter For eksempel, når sentralbanken kjøper utenlandsk valuta, er det det samme, for kontantstrømsanalyse, da statskassen kjøper militærutstyr Dette kalles ofte statskassen og sentralbanken på konsolidert basis. Det avgjørende for beskatning er å skape selgere av ekte varer og tjenester som er villige til å bytte dem til den regningsenhet valgt av regjeringen Dollar denominated tax liabilities-funksjonen for å skape selgere av virkelige varer og tjenester som må ha dollar for å slukke sine skatteforpliktelser Å øke inntektene er i seg selv ingen konsekvens for regjeringen, da dollar ikke er en begrenset statlig ressurs, men en forpliktelse eller skattekreditt som kan utstedes etter ønske Regjeringen er i stand til å øke omsetningen begrenser ikke hva det er i stand til å kjøpe. Kjøpekraften til regjeringen er begrenset bare av det som tilbys for salg i bytte for dollar. Adam Smith-siden 312, anerkjente Cannan Edition denne Chartalist-visningen. En prins, som bør anta at en viss andel av hans skatt skal betales i en papir av en bestemt type, kan dermed gi en viss verdi til denne papirpenningen, selv om begrepet sin endelig utløsning og innløsning bør avhenger helt og holdent på prinsens vilje. Kanals oppsummering av dette avsnittet lyder. Et krav om at visse avgifter skal betales spesielt papirpenger, kan gi dette papiret en viss verdi selv om det var irreversibel. Dette var også godt forstått av britiske koloniale guvernører. I de delene av Afrika hvor landet fortsatt var i afrikanske hender, tvang koloniale myndigheter afrikanere til å produsere kontantavlinger, uansett hvor lave prisene var. Favorittteknikken var beskatning. Pengeskatt ble introdusert på en rekke ting storfe, land, hus og folket selv. Pengene til å betale skatten var ved å vokse kontanteravlinger eller jobbe på europeiske gårder eller i deres gruver Rodney, 1972, side 165, original vekt er. I sin avtale om penger skrev volum 1, side 4, John Maynard Keynes, og i tillegg hevder staten hvilken rett som tilsvarer det som utløser forpliktelser. Det er lite bevis på at denne gangs vanlige forståelsen av ikke-konvertible penger har overlevde epoken med konvertible råvarepenger. Treasury-verdipapirer og rentesats Vedlikehold. I det kommersielle banksystemet oppretter lån innskudd som en regnskapsoppføring. Handelsbankens reservekontoer ved Fed kan betraktes som ikke-rentebærende kontokontoer hos Fed, og Reservekrav kan betraktes som minimumsbalansebeholdning Reservebalanser er medlemsbankens eiendeler, og bankforpliktelser er Fedets eiendeler. Konsolidert hovedbok for hele banksystemet er alltid i balanse, med unntak av noen få driftsfaktorer, for eksempel sjekker i prosessen med clearing Når noen bank overfører penger til en annen bank, reduseres de første bankens innskudd og den andre bankens depo seter er økt Totalt innskudd i det kommersielle banksystemet forblir uendret. Bank A og Bank B er i balanse. De har hver sin opprinnelse 100 i lån og kreditert inntektene til låntakers kontokonto. Bank A har mistet innskuddet til Bank B Banken Systemet i aggregat er fortsatt i balanse, selv om bankens reservekonto på Fed er overført med 100 og bankens reservekonto har en positiv balanse på 100 I dette tilfellet kan bank A låne fra bank B Det er mulig å gjenopprette balansen uten inngrep fra Fed. Hvis kommersiell bank A s innskyter skriver en sjekk til US Treasury betalingen av skatt, debiterer Fed reservekontoen for Bank A og krediterer statskassen sin konto på Fed Total bankinnskudd i den kommersielle banksystemet reduseres mens de totale lånene forblir uendrede. Bank A og Bank B er i balanse. De har hver sin opprinnelse 100 i lån og kreditert inntektene til låntakers kontokonto. Bankens innskyter har gjort en betaling til Treasury s konto på Federal Reserve The Fed debiterer reservekontoen for Bank A, og kreditter Treasury s konto på Fed Banken har nå en overtrekking på Fed, kjent som en reserve mangel på 100 I dette tilfellet, Bankens reservekonto er overført Hvis bank A låner fra Bank B, flytter mangelen til Bank B og bankens reservekonto er overført. Hvis en bank oppretter et nytt lån og skaper et nytt innskudd, vil eiendeler og gjeld øke likt og forlate størrelsen på mangelen uendret heller ikke vil tilbakebetaling av eksisterende lån endre mangelen. For alle praktiske formål kan en systembrist i det kommersielle banksystemet bare bli lindret ved overføring av midler fra Fed til reservekonto for medlemsmedlemmer bank Når Fed krediterer medlemsbankens reservekonto og debiterer egen konto, øker de totale reserver i det kommersielle banksystemet i dette enkle tilfellet, hvis Federal Reserve lån 100 tilbake til Bank A, gjenoppretter banksystemet balanse som begynner med mangelvilkår. Fed erstatter en kassekreditt med et lån. Selv om Bank A ikke dekker mangelen, vil Fed reservere overtræk som et lån og ta en passende straff på den måten , en mangel er alltid dekket av et lån fra Fed. Variabelen er frekvensen, og muligens sikkerheten krevd av Fed for å sikre det obligatoriske lånet. Hvis statlige utgifter overstiger skatteinntekter, er det et budgetunderskudd som definert for regnskapsformål Regjeringen utgifter er vanligvis gjort via en kreditt til en handelsbankens reservekonto på Fed, og en avregningsdebitering på statens konto på Fed. Kreditten til medlemsbankens reservekonto er alt som påvirker den private sektoren, som noen motregning transaksjoner mellom Fed og statskassen s konto på Fed er helt utenfor det kommersielle banksystemet, og er motregningsposter på statens konsoliderte balanse av Treasu ry og Fed. Let oss antar at det kommersielle banksystemet er i balanse med alle banker fornøyd med de nåværende reservebalansen som i figur 4.A 100 betaling fra statskassen til bank B s kunde blir tilrettelagt av Fed debitering av statskassen s Fed konto og kreditering Bank B s reservekonto. Av hensyn til enkelhet er det ingen reservekrav, dette skaper en ubalanse i det kommersielle banksystemet, kjent som et system stort reserveoverskudd. Siden reservekontoer ikke er rentebærende, vil en bank med reserveoverskudd forsøke å låne disse midlene til en annen bank. Med ingen andre banker i underskudd på Fed, vil nattesatsen, kjent som den matede fondskursen, falle til 0 bud. Banker vil ikke være villige til å betale renter for å tiltrekke seg inntekter som ikke tjener renter. Overflødige reserver har verdi hvis de kan benyttes til å tilbakebetale lån fra Fed, kjøpe nye statsobligasjoner fra statskassen, eller å kjøpe eksisterende statsobligasjoner fra Fed s nåværende portefølje Alle disse utgjør overføring av midler til Fed Only En overføring av midler fra det kommersielle banksystemet til Fed kan redusere reserveoverskudd. Kjøper og salg av verdipapirer fra Fed kalles åpen markedsoperasjon. Den normale driftsprosedyren er for Fed å kompensere for faktorer som forårsaker ubalanser i reserve, kalt driftsfaktorer, med åpne markedsoperasjoner. Operasjonsfaktorer inkluderer overføringer mellom kommersielle banker og Fed, og andre poster som påvirker reservebalansen, inkludert endringer i uklar kontroll, kjent som flyt og endringer i Kontanter i omløp. Salg av nyutstedte statspapirer ved statskassen påvirker den private sektoren på nøyaktig samme måte som salg av verdipapirer fra Fed fra porteføljen av eksisterende statspapirer. I begge tilfeller overføres midler fra den private sektoren til Fed, er statspapirene kreditert til en medlemsbankens konto, og en reserveavledning som er lik verdien av t han har verdipapirer for salg. Med en reserve på over 100. Fed selger 100 statsobligasjoner til Bank B. Nå er Bank B villig til å betale renter for å beholde innskuddene, da den har 100 rentebærende lån og 100 av rentebærende Treasury verdipapirer for å finansiere. Et systembrutt reserveoverskudd eller mangel kan kun oppveies av overføringer av midler til og fra Fed Hvis regjeringen ønsker å opprettholde en rente mellom 0 bud, betingelsen sammenfaller med et reserveoverskudd og ingen tilbud, Resultatet av reserveunderskudd må kompensere for driftsfaktorer som forårsaker disse forholdene. Noen form for rentebærende innskudd, som for eksempel statsobligasjoner, må tilbys ved reserveoverskudd. Fondene er lånt, enten direkte med overtrekk eller via åpne markedsinnkjøp av verdipapirer, i tilfelle reserven mangler. Fed krever at medlemsbankene opprettholder reservebeholdninger som kreves som obligatoriske reserver. Disse betaler ikke renter, og reserverer derfor reservert Krav er en bankskatt som tilsvarer renten. Bankene må betale Fed for å låne de nødvendige reserver, eller fra et annet synspunkt, renten forutsatt ved å forlate penger i ikke-rentebærende reservekontoer. For tiden håndhever Fed visse reserver krav Et reserveoverskudd eller mangel er definert som at bankene har enten et overskudd av reserver over det påkrevde nivået eller en reserve totalt som er under det påkrevde nivået. Teknisk sett er konseptet med Fed som den eneste kilden til netto reserver direkte fra en lagre reserve regnskapssystem hvor reservekrav er basert på innskudd fra en tidligere tidsperiode Da reservekrav bestemmes av et innskuddstall fra en tidligere tidsperiode, og reservekontoer ikke betaler rente, er etterspørselen etter reserver ujevn. Økning eller avtagende lån, og Dermed blir innskudd, for eksempel, endringer i fremtidige reservekrav, men kan ikke lindre en nåværende ubalanse. Selv med en bly Systemet, som USA hadde på 1960-tallet, resulterte praktiske overveier av kortsiktige ulemper i banklånsporteføljer i samme Fed-politikk for å handle bare defensivt i pengemarkedene Basil Moore, Horizontalists and Verticalists, 1988 Med andre ord, Fed kan bare reagere på ubalanser ved å kompensere dem. Fed har ikke mulighet til å handle proaktivt for å legge til eller drenere reserver for direkte å endre den monetære basen, med mindre den er villig til å akseptere enten en 0-rentesats eller en rente som sammenfaller med en reservemangel ved en eller flere medlemsbanker Da reservefondet automatisk er booket som et lån, er Fed s eneste virkelige alternativ å sette prisen på lånet av nødvendige reserver til det kommersielle banksystemet. Dette er grunnlaget for begrepet endogene penger , hovedtemaet for post keynesian monetær tankegang Pkmt undersøkelse, Cottrell, pkt arkiver. Trisjepapirer fungerer derfor ikke for å finansiere utgifter, men for å gi en rentebærende dep Usikkerhet for ikke-rentebærende overskuddsreserver. Salg av statsobligasjoner støtter den daglige rentesatsen eksogent bestemt av Fed-underskuddsutgiftene uten sikkerhetssalg fra statskassen, eller Fed vil skape et reserveoverskudd og resultere i et 0 bud for inntekter på natten. Økonomisk forskjell mellom statlige utstedende verdipapirer og ikke utstedelse av verdipapirer er den økonomiske forskjellen mellom en 0-kort kortsiktig rente og en viss positiv kortsiktig rentesats. Derfor er tilbudet av statsgjeld til den private sektoren som sammenfaller med underskuddsutgifter, en nødvendig betingelse for at staten skal opprettholde en positiv rente over natten. Den samme logikken gjelder for fysisk trykking av penger. Dersom valutaen skrives ut og brukes av staten utover den private sektors ønske om å holde penger, vil innehaverne av dette overskytende kontanter kan ikke finne noen renter som betaler innskudd for kontanter dersom regjeringen ikke selger se kurirer eller tilby andre rentebærende innskudd. En 0-buds kortsiktig rentesats ville seire. Utenfor forståelsen av at dollarene som brukes til å kjøpe statspapirer ellers ville bo over natten i ikke-rentebærende reservekontoer, frykter som å rulle over risikoproblemer knyttet til mulighet for at staten utsteder nye obligasjoner for å erstatte forfallende obligasjoner og ikke finne noen låntakere og finansiell utfordring om at salg av statsobligasjoner bruker penger som ville vært tilgjengelig for andre låntakere, kan overfylle og blokkere finanspolitiske alternativer som inkluderer økt underskudd utgifter. Ekspansiv prising Et grunnleggende tilfelle av monopol. Det nåværende monetære systemet er et klassisk monopol med den tradisjonelle analysen av monopol som er tilstrekkelig til å beskrive alle aspekter. Regjeringen er monopolets utsteder av dollar som privat sektor trenger for å betale skatt. Utgifter av statskassen og utgifter fra Fed når den utfører offsetting åpne markedsoperasjoner, også som direkte utlån av Fed leverer den private sektoren med de nødvendige dollarene. I alle tilfeller utveksler den private sektoren eiendeler, varer eller tjenester til govt-monopolleverandøren, i bytte for dollar som til slutt er nødvendig for betaling av skatter. Regjeringen har samme prisalternativer med penger fra enhver monopolleverandør av absolutt nødvendighet En analogi kan trekkes for eksempel med et elektrisitetsmonopol, selv om skatter gir valutamonopolisten et verktøy for å regulere etterspørselen som elforsyningsmonopolisten ikke har. Hvordan gjør monopolisten pris hans produkt Det er to alternativer. Sett pris, p, og la kvantitet, q, flyt, eller sett q og la p flyte. Det første alternativet er generelt foretrukket, med en gullstandard eller det foreslåtte ELR-programmet to eksempler av å bruke det første alternativet. Regjeringen jobber for øyeblikket med det andre alternativet. Det setter et budsjett som bestemmer q utgifter, og lar markedet bestemme prisnivået da alle kjøp skjer på markedet priser Hvis monopolisten bestemmer seg for å sette q, og la markedet bestemme p, må det begrense q slik at etterspørselen overskrider q, eller for alle praktiske formål vil prisen på produktet faller til 0 Regjeringsbegrensning av q til kontroll av midler bruk av kontinuerlig arbeidsledighet og overskytende kapasitet for å opprettholde prisstabilitet. Sikkert vil dette aldri betraktes som et levedyktig alternativ ved å drive et elektrisitetsmonopol, for eksempel. En gullstandard bruker monopolistens alternativ til å sette p, i dette tilfellet prisen på gull, og la q, mengden av offentlige utgifter og utlån, flyte Skatter skaper etterspørsel etter valutaen Regjeringen setter en pris hvor den vil kjøpe og selge gull og foreta alle andre kjøp til markedspriser. Det er da skattemessig og monetært begrenset til en policy som tilbringer lite nok på ikke-gullvarer, og justerer renten for å opprettholde et ønsket bufferlager av gull. Regjeringen må begrense sine ikke-gullutgifter til mindre enn etterspørselen etter curre ncy skapt av skatt, slik at det overskytende etterspørselen etter valutaen fremgår av gullsalg til regjeringen. Overdreven ikke-gullutgifter resulterer i gullsalg til privat sektor. Så lenge buffermateriale og lovlig konvertibilitet er på plass, vil prisen på gull satt av regjeringen er valuta sverd Alle andre priser flyter på markedsnivå og reflekterer den nominelle verdien i forhold til den fastsatte prisen på gull. Mikroøkonomisk teori beskriver logikken, som konkluderer med at en monopolist, som kontrollerer en absolutt nødvendighet, setter pris på en måte ELR-forslaget bruker muligheten til å sette en pris, ELR-lønnen, betale markedspriser for andre kjøp, og la den totale mengden av offentlige utgifter bli markedsbestemt. Med en gullstandard kan gull alltid betraktes som fullt ansatt som gull kan alltid bli solgt til regjeringen til fast pris På samme måte, med en ELR-policy, kan arbeidskraft alltid finne en kjøper. Paradigm Begrensning. I intet tilfelle må regjeringen fondet selv i d ollars Spending er begrenset av det som tilbys for salg, ikke av inntekter. Skatter fungerer for å skape et behov for dollar, slik at regjeringen kan bruke dollar til å kjøpe ekte varer og tjenester. Lånfunksjoner for å tillate overskudd av dollar opprettet ved underskuddsutgifter for å tjene en positiv rente av interesse Deficits utgjør ingen finansieringsrisiko siden lånebehov finner sted bare etter utgifter, og bare for å støtte og opprettholde en ønsket rente. Renter og priser er underlagt eksogen kontroll av utstederen av valutaen. Det er ingen bevis for at regjeringen forstår dette paradigme Regjeringen budsjett antar det paradigmet at dollar må heves ved å beskatte eller låne for å finansiere utgifter til markedspriser Monopolisten regjeringen har bestemt seg for å la markedskrefter pris sine produktdollarer Derfor må det begrense mengden av utgifter for å opprettholde tilstrekkelig ledighet og overkapasitet for å hindre en nedgang i verdien av produktets inflasjon. Utvikling er defi Ned som tomgangskraft tilbys for salg uten kjøpere til den prisen Det vil oppstå når den private sektoren i sin helhet ønsker å jobbe og tjene den monetære regningsenheten, men ønsker ikke å bruke alt det ville tjene hvis det er fullt ansatt. Post - Kynesisk monetær teori avslører essensen av ufrivillig arbeidsledighet. Begrepet radikal endogenitet hevder at alle innskudd er regnskapsmessige poster av lån og innskuddspenger eksisterer kun i forbindelse med utestående banklån. Dersom det i privat sektor ønskes en agent å øke sin beholdning av netto finansielle eiendeler, H nfa, kan dette ønsket bare tilfredsstilles ved reduksjon av en annen agent s beholdninger av H nfa. En agent s netto finansielle eiendeler reduseres når enten agenten øker sin utestående gjeld eller reduserer beholdningen av finansielle eiendeler Netto Finansielle eiendeler økes ved å betale ned gjeld eller ved å øke dagens aksje. I mangel av økonomisk inngrep fra regjeringen, hvis en agent ønsker ansettelse For å øke sin beholdning av finansielle eiendeler, må en annen bestemme seg for å redusere sine netto finansielle eiendeler for at en transaksjon skal finne sted. Hvis ingen agent er villig til å redusere sine finansielle nettofordeler, oppstår ikke det ønskede salg av arbeid. Dette er definert som ufrivillig Arbeidsledigheten. Den nasjonale regnskapsregnskapet for dobbeltregistrering er alltid i balanse. Innmeldinger på den ene siden av hovedboken må regnskapsføres med offsettingoppføringer på den andre Investeringen, for eksempel regnes som besparelser i nasjonal inntektsregnskap, så per definisjon, Totalinvestering vil alltid være lik total besparelser Offentlige underskuddsutgifter klassifiseres som regjeringens mislighold, og offsetting regnskapsinngangen er en økning i nominell besparelse i den private private sektoren. Så når regjeringen engasjerer seg i underskuddsutgifter, øker den samlede private sektor H nfa, med H nfa, inkludert offshore-beholdninger av dollarobligasjoner. Videre bestemmer nivået på offentlige underskuddsbruk privat sektor H nfa Hvis privat sektor ønsker å øke sin egenkapital, kan dette ønsket bare tilfredsstilles med en økning i utgiftsutgiftene til offentlige underskudd. Arbeidsledigheten kan derfor oppsummeres som følger. Ufrivillig arbeidsledighet er bevis på at ønsket privat sektor i privat sektor overstiger den faktiske H nfa som er tillatt av offentlig finanspolitikk. For å være sløv, eksisterer ufrivillig arbeidsledighet fordi det føderale budsjettunderskuddet er for lite. Videre, hvis en agent ønsker å selge noen virkelige varer, og dermed øke sin H nfa, kan dette også bare bli innkvartert av en annen agent som reduserer H nfa Hvis den ønskede H nfa er større enn den faktiske H nfa, er beviset ufrivillig lagerakkumulering og en kontraksjonsforstyrrelse. NFA, Aggregate Demand og Aggregate Supply. Forståelsen av at ledigheten er bevis på Det offentlige underskuddet er for lite er i samsvar med standardkonseptet av samlet tilbud og etterspørsel. Samlet etterspørsel er summen av alle utgifter, og Samlet forsyning er summen av alle varer og tjenester som tilbys til salg. Det kan da påpekes at hvis den private sektor ønsket å bruke noen av sin fulle sysselsettingsinntekt som ble oppnådd ved å selge virkelige varer og tjenester som ble holdt som H nfa, er beviset noe kombinasjon av ufrivillig lageropphopning og ufrivillig arbeidsledighet Ufrivillig arbeidsledighet spores dermed til et ønsket H nfa som overskrider den faktiske H nfa. Den samlede tilførsels og etterspørselsmetoden tillater endringer i ønsket H nfa å uttrykkes enten som en endring i samlet etterspørsel eller en endring i aggregatforsyning H nfa-tilnærmingen fokuserer bare på den kontrollvariabelen som er ønsket H nfa - uansett om det er aggregatforsyning eller samlet etterspørsel som er overdreven eller mangelfull. Det kan faktisk alltid være umulig å skille et mangel i samlet etterspørsel fra et overskudd samlet forsyning, noe som gjør forskjellen unødvendig. Den 12.500 prisbegrensede inntektspolitikken. Den foreslåtte ELR-politikken og dens versjon av fullstendig empl oljepris og prisstabilitet er en logisk utvidelse av det riktige paradigmet til en skattemessig valuta. Siden den private sektoren trenger regjeringens utgifter til å betale skatt, vil statlig begrensning av størrelsen på ELR-lønnen, i stedet for begrensning av mengden dollar det tilbringer , resulterer i en form for prisstabilitet H nfa kan bestemmes direkte av den private sektoren da den bestemmer den totale mengden ELR-arbeid det selger til offentlig sektor Regjeringen setter ELR-lønn og lar markedet allokere alle andre ressurser tilsvarende. Dette er Den samme prosessen som bestemmer relativ verdi under en gullstandard Under ELR-forslaget tilpasser regjeringen finanspolitikken og pengepolitikken for å opprettholde ELR-bassenget på samme måte som en regjering justerer finans - og pengepolitikken for å opprettholde et bufferlager av gull med gull standard. Prisstabilitet under en ELR-policy er lik den som følger av en inntektspolicy. Med en inntektspolicy er imidlertid et budsjett fortsatt målrettet, så det er unntatt sannsynlig at den faktiske H nfa vil matche ønsket H nfa For lite et underskudd vil resultere i arbeidsledighet For stort et underskudd vil være inflasjon og 1 redusere den relative levestandarden til de som er underlagt inntektspolitikken, 2 introdusere incentiver for å bryte lønn og produktivitet lover og 3 generelt skaper en følelsesmessig ladet sosial debatt som resulterer i en serie politisk bestemte løsninger. ELR-forslaget etablerer en minimumslønnstandard, da regjeringen er villig til å ansette noen på ELR-lønn. Det gir også en bremse på lønnsøkninger i privat sektor som ikke er knyttet til produktivitetsøkninger, ettersom arbeidsgiverne har et basseng av offentlige ELR-arbeidere som de kan tegne. Også ansatte innser at ELR-arbeidere kan erstatte dem, selv om kostnadene for arbeidsgiveren vil avhenge av kvalifikasjoner og opplæring nødvendig for å utføre oppgaven arbeidsgiveren ønsker På denne måten oppstår en nominell lønnsskala Valutaen av valutaen er ELR lønn, siden det er hva regjeringen, monopolleverandøren av sine penger har bestemt seg for, vil betale. Andre lønninger er gjenstand for markedskrefter. Den første ELR-lønnen kan settes på hvilket som helst nivå da markedskrefter vil justere alle andre lønninger og priser. For å minimere avbrudd, innledende ELR-lønn bør være en som ikke er så høy som å trekke arbeidere vekk fra den private sektoren, og ikke så lavt som å kreve en generell deflasjon for å bringe den faktiske H nfa i tråd med ønsket H nfa. For eksempel hvis ELR-lønnen var satt høyt nok til å tiltrekke seg arbeidstakere fra den private sektoren, ville en engangsjustering finne sted. Netto offentlige utgifter ville øke ettersom ELR-arbeidstakere ble lagt til regjeringens lønnsstatistikk. Produksjonen fra den private sektoren ville falle ettersom arbeidstakere forlot jobbene, og inntektene fra privat sektor ville rise from the higher paying ELR jobs Businesses would then have to pay more, both to replace lost workers and to retain their other workers Prices would rise as both costs and incomes were being pushed up The converse holds if th e ELR wage is set too low This would be evidenced by a slowdown in sales as private sector income was insufficient to realize a desired H nfa and purchase the output of business Increasing inventories would lead to layoffs and downward pressure on the price of labor Eventually, more workers would find their way to ELR jobs and government spending would rise At some point prices would stabilize in line with the ELR wage 12,500 per year was selected as the ELR wage for this proposal This is a bit higher than the current minimum wage and might result in a small one time upward adjustment in the price level My bias was to err slightly on the high side, rather than risk an initial deflation. Under the ELR program, changes in desired H nfa result in, and are evidenced by, equal changes in actual H nfa For example, if the private sector desire for H nfa increases, involuntary unemployment that would occur in the absence of an ELR policy will, instead, result in additional labor being sold to t he government for 12,500 per year This increases government spending and the deficit, allowing actual H nfa to increase to the level desired by the private sector In other words, if the deficit increases by 50 billion, that number, by definition, matches the private sector s desire to net save financial assets The currency, meanwhile, remains defined by the labor that can be purchased for 12,500 Furthermore, not providing the desired H nfa , and letting unemployment remain at current levels, would define a deflationary and contractionary bias. Conversely, if desired H nfa decreases, perhaps due to increased non-ELR government spending or behavioral changes in the private sector, an opposite bias is introduced The government will begin to lose its 12,500 workers to higher paying jobs in the private sector This reduces government spending It could also increase tax liabilities, further reducing net spending H nfa is thereby reduced, until it matches the H nfa desired by the private sector If fiscal policy is such that all of the 12,500 government workers are hired by the private sector, then the market price of ELR labor has risen beyond 12,500, and the currency has been redefined downward accordingly It is the equivalent of the government losing its buffer stock of gold under a gold standard Additionally, unlike gold, non-homogeneous labor means that as the pool of ELR workers shrinks, the remaining ELR workers would be increasingly less valuable to the private sector, and the currency may begin to get redefined downward at an increasing rate Indeed, if the remaining ELR workers have no value to the private sector, continued shrinkage of the ELR pool may be impossible, and government spending increases or tax cuts designed to reduce the size of the ELR pool might result only in a devaluation of the currency To regain control of prices, the government could act to offset the reduced desired private sector H nfa directly and restore the ELR pool to a desired level by cu tting spending or raising taxes It could also attempt to indirectly raise desired H nfa , by changing interest rates introducing tax advantaged savings plans, etc Such efforts would be designed to trigger a deflationary private sector slowdown that would result in a reduced demand for private sector workers above the 12,500 ELR wage, and workers finding their way back to the 12,500 ELR payroll If this were deemed too disruptive, the same fiscal constraint could be matched with an increase of the ELR wage, say, to 15,000 per year This would redefine the currency downward to that level - presumably the perceived market level that wages had gone to at that time Prices would stabilize around the new benchmark as desired H nfa and actual H nfa correspond to a desired buffer stock of 15,000 ELR workers The question of the appropriate size of this pool of workers would be somewhat analogous to the current debate over the current natural rate of unemployment. The ELR can be considered a labor st andard policy that continuously defines the value of a dollar by the quality of ELR labor that can be hired at a given price Since labor is not homogeneous, the value of the dollar will, by definition, fluctuate with the quality of the labor that 12,500 purchases This carries an implied cyclical tendency towards increasing money value during periods of private sector increases in desired H nfa , and vice versa For example, layoffs in the private sector would result in additional 12,500 government workers of higher quality than the existing pool This would enhance the investment environment for foreigners as well as domestics, as better workers could be hired for the same nominal wage Also, any increase in the attractiveness of the ELR pool, such as a higher level of education, would both increase the purchasing power of the currency and increase the value of the currency in the foreign exchange markets A well thought out ELR plan would include a well-organized program to educate, upgra de skills, and make productive use of ELR workers. This type of fluctuation of the quality of the labor available for 12,500 technically constitutes price instability, as the currency is being constantly redefined at the margin by the quality of the best worker in the pool This does not, however, necessarily represent an increase in price volatility of goods and services over the current system which uses a pool of unemployed, i e the concept of a natural rate of unemployment, to stabilize prices Nor does it imply that the resulting price instability due, for example, to an increase in the general level of education, is undesirable. Defining the dollar by the ELR labor that can be purchased at the margin does not mean all prices will be constant forever To the contrary, all other prices, including asset prices, will be constantly changing as the market allocates via price Only one price, the ELR wage, has been used to define the currency All other prices result as the forces of supply an d demand settle on nominal prices that reflect a value relative to the ELR wage and continuous full employment. Most proposed incomes policies extend government regulation into the private sector, requiring, for example, documentation that wage increases not exceed productivity increases The proposed ELR program, however, recognizes that it is only necessary to constrain the prices the government, itself, pays By allowing the private sector to realize desired H nfa through the market process, market forces will link wages to productivity For example, an available-for-hire pool of ELR workers means private sector employers will not be forced by shortages of unskilled labor to increase wages More productive employees will be able to command a higher wage, though general productivity increases by business will not result in higher wages if a given job can be performed equally well by a 12,500 ELR worker. This program does not necessarily defeat the real business or inventory cycle It does u se the proposed 12,500 public service job to absorb fluctuations of private sector employment, allowing the private sector to achieve its desired H nfa on a continuous basis This neutralizes any monetary system bias implied currently by a government policy that does not allow actual H nfa to match desired H nfa. ELR V S Unemployment Compensation. The value of a currency is determined by what the government demands the private sector must do or sell to obtain it Unemployment compensation is payment for not working If everyone could simply stay home and collect a government check, not be stigmatized, and thereby obtain all currency necessary to pay all taxes due, the currency would have no value Therefore, under current policy unemployment compensation must be limited, temporary, and an insufficient source of revenue for the private sector to meet its tax obligations and desired H nfa. The ELR program, on the other hand, requires the employee, at a minimum, to sell his time The ELR program therefore need not be limited, as the currency will maintain its value regardless of the quantity of ELR spending The value of the currency will equal the effort necessary to earn the ELR wage. Past Attempts at Government Sponsored Full Employment. With a private sector desire for H nfa , and a government that fails to run a deficit large enough to accommodate that desire, the corresponding unemployment can be severe It may eventually be reduced by a reduction in desired H nfa because of lower interest rates, or, as some contend, by falling wages However, the time necessary to test this hypothesis is usually beyond human tolerance, and the pragmatic view of government employment arises. For example, from 1931 to 1941 unemployment averaged well over 10 the definition of a depression It hit a high of 24 9 in 1933, and was still 14 6 as late as 1940 GNP reached a high of 203 6 billions of 1958 dollars in 1929 fell to a low of 141 5 in 1933, and by 1939, had crept up only to 209 4 Low interes t rates were not enough to decrease desired H nfa Short term Treasury securities reached a high of just over 5 in May of 1929, were cut to the mid 3 range in November 1929 following the stock market crash, and were as low as about 0 5 by September 1931 Rates were increased to about 2 5 until May of 1932, and then remained well under 1 until 1948 Continuous low interest rates also did not seem to result in run-away asset prices The Dow equity index price did not recover to its 1929 highs until 1958, the 1927 highs were not reached until 1946, and the low of 1930 was not surpassed until 1936.In 1933, after several years of undesirable unemployment and depressed GNP, the Public Works Administration, the first public works program, was enacted It was followed by the WPA in 1935 It is noteworthy that these programs did not come about until after several years of troubling unemployment, and fell short of solving the unemployment crisis and ending the depression Work relief never reached more than 40 of the unemployed, and only 3 million of the 9 million unemployed participated in the WPA The reason these programs were constrained was the reluctance to engage in government deficit spending During the 1930 s, in spite of the high unemployment and depressed growth, budget balancing was never far from the forefront of political purpose Belief in a balanced budget prevented government relief programs from ending the depression, and when Roosevelt honored his 1936 campaign pledge to balance the budget in 1937, the economy suffered a major setback with unemployment jumping back to 19 1 from a seven year low of 14 3 Public works programs that were paid for by other spending cuts or by tax increases could not reduce unemployment as there was never enough net government spending to accommodate desired H nfa The largest deficit of the 1930 s was 5 9 of GNP in 1934, and it was down to 0 1 of GNP by 1938 The U S was on a gold standard, and policy had to include managing the national g old supply This led to various extremes such as suspending domestic convertibility in 1934, and making it illegal for domestics to own gold, as well as strong support for balancing the federal budget. During WWII, a radically different approach was initiated Government spending exceeded tax collections in 1942, 1943,1944, and 1945 by 14 5 , 31 1 , 23 6 , and 22 4 of GNP respectively Unemployment was under 2 by 1943, and output increased from 209 4 billions of 1958 dollars to 337 1 by 1943 Prices were fixed, and government planning agents from the Office of Price Administration enacted rationing Great effort was taken to ensure that rationing was perceived as equitable ensuring public support for the program Patriotism kept Americans from black markets that may have otherwise drained resources needed for the war effort, and patriotism also became associated with nominal savings The idea was to get desired H nfa up to the level of deficit spending in a low interest rate environment In oth er words, hoarding of dollar denominated financial assets via government bond purchases was encouraged, allowing the government to purchase up to 60 of the real output without price competition from consumers The desire of the American public to earn money and not spend it, which caused the unemployment of the previous decade, now dovetailed well with the public sector demands for war production, and unemployment was, for all practical purposes, eliminated. Foreign Trade. Transactions of real goods and services between those within the geographical confines of the U S and anyone outside the U S are generally defined as foreign trade Exports are real goods and services leaving the country, and imports are real goods and services entering the country By standard definition, exports are a real cost, and imports are a real benefit Exports can be considered the cost of imports Financial transactions are accounting information, and not considered as imports or exports. The chronic U S trade def icit, for example, means the dollar price of imports continually exceeds the dollar price of exports This puts increasing numbers of dollars in the hands of non-U S residents who have decided to hold dollar denominated financial assets rather than use their dollars to buy U S goods This is an identity, for, if they did buy U S goods, there would not be a trade deficit As holders of dollar denominated financial assets, they are net nominal savers, much like any domestic holder of dollar denominated financial assets For purposes of this analysis, foreign dollar denominated financial holdings are considered part of H nfa. Currently, most of the world allows currencies to trade freely Occasionally the major central banks will intervene in the foreign exchange markets, and buy or sell one currency versus another for a variety of reasons and motivations However, most central banks are not legally bound to guarantee convertibility of their home currency to another currency at predetermined rat es Exceptions include a few currency board systems as Argentina and Hong Kong Should a foreign holder of dollar denominated financial assets desire to switch to another currency, he must find, in the market place, another agent who wishes to be his counter party If a transaction does occur, the dollar denominated financial assets will change hands but not increase or diminish The exchange rate will likely fluctuate, but the quantity of dollar denominated financial assets remains unchanged Dollar H nfa is not changed by foreign exchange transactions that do not involve the Federal Reserve acting for its own account. The desired H nfa of the foreign sector is a factor since it is part of the total desired H nfa A declining dollar in the foreign exchange markets becomes indicative, again by definition, of decreasing desired H nfa of the foreign sector agents, and vice versa The number of 12,500 public service employees under the ELR employment proposal will fluctuate with changes in the de sired H nfa of the foreign sector as well as the domestic sector It is total desired H nfa that controls the number of these public service workers Increased government deficits that arise when the pool of 12,500 ELR workers increases always match the desired H nfa of the entire non-government sector The dollar remains defined by the available workers, so changes in the value of the dollar in the foreign exchange markets must be a function of the quality of the ELR labor available for 12,500 and the changing value of the other currency. This understanding allows policy makers the option of taking advantage of the benefits of being a net importer For example, an increase in net imports that results in the loss of private domestic employment will immediately result in an increase in the number of government 12,500 workers This increases government spending and the budget deficit which may result in other industries hiring workers away from the government If the pool of 12,500 ELR workers is deemed by the electorate to be too large, taxes can be cut or public spending increased until the number drops to the desired level The public would associate higher trade deficits with an increasing standard of living, lower taxes, and other such benefits. A fixed exchange rate would present problems similar the gold standard since the gold standard is, for all practical purposes, a fixed exchange rate system If the Federal Reserve was committed to convert dollars to other currencies, a larger budget deficit or trade deficit could result in the rapid depletion of the Fed s foreign currency reserves, forcing the suspension of convertibility and a return to a market system. Interest Rates and Employment. Anyone who lives entirely on his interest income may otherwise need employment Such rentiers have removed themselves from the labor force To the extent that higher real rates increase the rentier population, potential output is reduced Furthermore, those left working are, in real terms, supporting those living on interest income. The concept of scarce jobs has led to a variety of programs designed to reduce the work force to limit unemployment These include child labor laws, education for veterans, aid for single mothers, and even social security These programs were ultimately unsuccessful at reducing unemployment, no matter how many potential participants they eliminated, as a given percentage of unemployed became a tool to limit price and wage increases The real result of reducing the labor force is reduced output. Lower real interest rates will tend to keep more individuals in need of employment Combined with a well run ELR policy, low rates should increase output dramatically with much of the increased output being investment It may be possible, for example, to repair, rebuild, enhance and maintain the public infrastructure without a decrease in private consumption from current levels. It is widely assumed that deficit spending to hire unemployed workers carries at least two risks - inflation and funding The inflation risk comes from the failure to understand exogenous pricing It is feared that deficit spending will cause an implied upward bias on labor costs from both the aggregate demand created by the deficit spending, and the elimination of the competition of the unemployed for available jobs The result is an anti-inflation policy that requires excess capacity in the private sector to keep market prices from rising This includes the need to maintain a pool of unemployed to discourage wages from rising The second perceived risk, funding, comes from the widely held misconception that the government must be able to fund itself to carry on spending The government is, therefore, concerned not only with how the market will receive the debt it believes it needs to sell in order to fund itself, but also concerned that there may be a market determined funding limit Until these perceptions change, a pool of unemployed workers will be necessary to contai n inflation, and deficit spending will be resisted. The Keynesian mainstream proposes ending unemployment by increasing aggregate demand through low interest rates and increased deficit spending To offset the inflation risk inherent in this policy many Keynesians propose various government legislated incomes policies These require the direct government regulation of private sector wages, usually attempting to link wages with productivity This has been rejected by the electorate, who seem to prefer the excess capacity approach to price stability. The proposed ELR program recognizes that the government is a monopoly supplier of its currency Price is set through the ELR wage, which defines the purchasing power of the currency Further recognized is that deficit spending poses no financial solvency risk to the government. The government, as employer of last resort, is not a new concept What prevented such policies from being viable and sustainable in the past the gold standard and other fixed exchange rate policies - are long gone We currently have a monetary system that can accommodate both full employment and price stability on a permanent basis. This ELR proposal is a logical extension of Keynesian and Post - Keynesian thought Endogenous money is already deeply rooted, and the idea that an incomes policy need only be practiced by the government with its ELR wage should not pose any philosophical barriers Nor should classical economists and their offspring be entirely against such an ELR program If they are correct, there would eventually be an equilibrium condition with the ELR pool dwindling to 0.The Author is a partner in the Investment Firm Adams, Viner and Mosler, and wishes to acknowledge the help of the following alphabetical order. Shannon Cox Paul Davidson Betty Rose Factor Mathew Forstater Charles Goodhart Daniel Seymour Pavlina Tcherneva Frederick Thayer L Randall Wray. Warren B Mosler February 2, 1997.The measure of actual inflationary pressure is the unemployment rate This takes inflation to means demand side inflation, i e effective demand outrunning the capacity of the economy to expand in order to accomodate it. So, when unemployment is pretty high, inflationary pressures are pretty low, and when unemployment is a little lower, inflationary pressures are a little higher, and when unemployment is really low, but not 0, inflationary pressures are quite strong. Sounds like the Phillips curve to me Not at all like price stability at full employment. And in WWII I wasn t there, but I heard there were black markets with much higher prices than what the rationing boards set. Tom Hickey Reply September 15th, 2011 at 10 13 pm. According to the MMT narrative its not a linear relationship Inflationary pressure does not occur while the economy is expanding to accomodate increasing demand. And in WWII I wasn t there, but I heard there were black markets with much higher prices than what the rationing boards set. Overall, Americans cooperated with needs of the d ay for shared sacrifice, and they also bought war bonds. John O Connell Reply September 16th, 2011 at 11 26 pm. I replied once already, but I don t see it Must have done something wrong. According to the MMT narrative its not a linear relationship. The Phillips Curve is not linear either I guess that s why it s not called the Phillips Line. Inflationary pressure does not occur while the economy is expanding to accomodate increasing demand. To me, that sounds exactly equivalent to saying that there can be no inflation when the economy is at less than full employment With idle capacity, increasing demand brings forth increasing supply, and that is expansion But Warren objects to that terminology Perhaps you can explain the difference. Back to WWII, I agree the entire population supported the war effort and generally cooperated with the rationing However, the government-set price was not the market price Market prices for rationed goods rose, due to the shortages. If I were in charge I could crea te what would be called high inflation and high unemployment if I wanted to. John O Connell Reply September 18th, 2011 at 6 54 am. If I were in charge I could create what would be called high inflation and high unemployment if I wanted to. You mean, like the 70 s Stagflation. Please expand on that idea How would you do it And then, how would you stop it, or each one independently. putting up a post on Buckaroos for Monday which may help on all this, thanks. Back to 23, if the banana republics had debt denominated in someone else s currency, their experiences are irrelevant to theory of fiat. I ll have to go back and find what I thought was said, but for now. What is monetary inflation vs what s called inflation I know we have run out of words, generally, so we reuse them sometimes to mean different things, but in a technical discussion can t we stick to one meaning per word. John O Connell Reply September 14th, 2011 at 6 55 pm. In a response to a reader question in the 7DIF section of this web s ite, you said. DEFICIT SPENDING ADDS INCOME AND SAVINGS TO THE PRIVATE SECTOR IF THIS EXACTLY OFFSETS PRIVATE SAVINGS DESIRES, THERE IS NO INFLATION. And I glean from all the math in 7DIF and elsewhere, that a government deficit that exactly offsets private savings desires will result exactly in full employment, as unemployment is the direct result of private sector savings. Therefore, whenever there is unemployment, it is because the deficit is smaller than the desired private sector savings, and no inflation can result from that either In fact, the deficit could even be increased so as to match desired private sector savings, and cause NO INFLATION. yes, in that context of that discussion on what mmt would consider monetary policy. Said levels of aggregate demand employment would not cause inflation, which is a continuous increase in the price level caused by continuous excess demand. this is not to say there would not be relative value shifts, and related one time adjustments in prices th at would show up in CPI which has become synonymous with inflation. John O Connell Reply September 15th, 2011 at 8 22 pm. continuous increase in the price level caused by continuous excess demand. How long is continuous Nothing last forever, including excess demand Do you mean something that is not a temporary spike that is reversed in a short while. relative value shifts that would show up in CPI. They shouldn t, if CPI is done properly Seems to me if there are two goods in the economy, apples and oranges, in equal amounts, and apples go up 10 and oranges go down 10 , CPI should not change If it does, then it is flawed. When it stops being continuous it stops being inflation in that context. John O Connell Reply September 16th, 2011 at 11 12 pm. There s no reply button on your last statement, so I ll use this one. When it stops being continuous it stops being inflation in that context. Then, once again, how long is continuous When prices rise continuously from 1980 to 2008, and then decline for one month in 2009, does that mean there was no inflation from 1980 to 2008.Or is 28 years long enough, but 28 months is not long enough to be called continuous. Or, is your point that the CAUSE of the rise in prices must be continuous excess demand , or else the rise in prices is not inflation. the period of continous price and wage increases can be called a period of inflation under the most common definitions in the texts. this is all about how the mainstream defines inflation. just an fyi, mmt covers the operational reality of both convertible and non convertible currency. for me, monetary inflation is inflation that comes from excess monetary demand as per what s called monetary and fiscal policy, and including private sector credit creation which is an offshoot of public policy as well. other inflations include those from the likes of oil price hikes by those with market power they are generally through the cost side, though interest rate policy works through the cost side as well. so w hen opec hiked crude from 2 to 40 over 10 years due to their market power prices would have gone up whether unemployment was at 3 or 10 , for example. John O Connell Reply September 15th, 2011 at 8 16 pm. Excess monetary demand, not supply. So, again with the CPI, I gather you don t think it accurately represents average prices, but is biased by overweighting goods that are rising in price, and underweighting goods that are falling. Even if oil went up, and all the things it directly affects went up, would we not both reduce consumption of oil and the related stuff and reduce consumption of non-oil assuming 0 elasticity of demand 1 for it all And would not reduced consumption of the other stuff tend to put downward pressure on their prices And prices on average, if the average were properly calculated, would not change Unless more money were injected into the system to try to accommodate continued consumption of the other stuff even in the face of the higher oil price. Is it only a flawed C PI and GDP deflator, then, that makes us believe there is monetary inflation when there is not, really. I didn t say that about CPI. And you are missing my point on why i distinguish between price increases vs inflation. The distinction is to help show why my proposed policy responses to inflation vary. Unforgiven Reply September 15th, 2011 at 11 56 pm. An interesting post on the subject. should read, most recent cpi increases. and most cpi spikes in the US since 11970 have been oil driven best i can recall. John O Connell Reply September 14th, 2011 at 10 52 am. But there are never oil-driven deflation spikes, when oil drops 70 over the course of 16 years, or 60 in a few weeks Inflation moderates following the bursting of oil bubbles, but never goes below 0 The inflation spikes associated with oil prices take inflation from 2-3 up to 6-10 , and when the oil spike ends the inflation spike ends, and inflation goes back down to 2-3 Never 0 Never price stability There is something else at work besi des oil And, acording to MMT, it is not the money supply and not the deficit What is it Public sector wages where is that data As a State employee now, I am painfully aware that my public sector wage is nowhere near what I was getting in the private sector, nor is it rising or likely to rise while I m here My longer-tenured colleagues have not had raises in 12 years So, I guess, like the rest of MMT terminology, public sector refers only to the Federal government. Tom Hickey Reply September 14th, 2011 at 11 44 am. I suspect, and IIRC Warren has stated, a portion of these effects are due to saving by the ownership class that goes into commodities as a new asset class, especially recently, thanks to Wall Street engineering think Goldman The advent of ETF s has also brought the public into an area that was previously occupied almost exclusively by professionals. For example, available storage space for petro is rented out, including idle tankers Farmland, too, has become an asset class I liv e in Iowa and am aware that farmland has been rising in price It is up 33 on the year today, according to the morning paper in Iowa City Contrastingly, there was a companion article saying how the fact that young people are living with parents is reducing demand Anyone living in Iowa knows that the reason that food prices are rising in the face of lower US demand is that Iowa agribusiness is selling into the international market where demand is hot and also supplying the ethanol industry Coupled with high prices for diesel fuel and go figure on food prices BTW there is very little wage labor in farming anymore in Iowa, since it is all mechanized, and immigrants do the meat packing. In recoveries, the first price level to rise is assets, since it is the ownership class that has the money and also borrows to leverage, the goods, then wages Generally, TPTB don t consider inflation until price level begins to effect workers enough to agitate for higher wages But inflation begins with assets affecting vitals like energy and food and this begins to get passed through. Interestingly, oil prices fell from a high of almost 150 to nearly 30 in the pull back, but quickly recovered to the 70-80 range and then rose to the 90-110 range This was significant because at the time the stim was designed the price of oil was way down The subsequent rise in price gobbled up the stim. cpi does drop to 0 and go negative from time to time, but point taken that the trend is generally up some. Yes, public sector wages for this particular purpose was meant to be Federal. And public sector wages tend to be ratchets, adjusting up with cpi, but not going down when cpi is negative, though as you state this is rare in any case. Also, there is some evidence inflation follows the interest rate set by the Fed, which makes sense, as when the fed pays interest, it is turning a given amount of dollars into more dollars But I can t quantify that for you - just a hunch. beowulf Reply September 17th, 2011 at 2 21 a m. Warren Mosler , Well, to link to Brad DeLong, commenting on Paul Krugman, who cites Larry Summers did someone forget to add Marty Feldstein and Greg Mankiw to the cc list who quotes JM Keynes Keynes referred to the strong positive correlation between nominal interest rates and the price level, which he called Gibson s Paradox, as one of the most completely established empirical facts in the whole field of quantitative economics. true, just like we always used to use the cb s short term interest rate to forecast M2 growth in the old days. depends on how you define inflation. and all the great latin american inflations were in the context of very high unemployment. John O Connell Reply September 14th, 2011 at 10 38 am. You defined inflation twice within the past few posts That definition is fine with me I think it is the one MMT has in mind when it states that inflation cannot occur unless there is full employment. I remember when we used to call them banana republics , referring to their infl ation, which I recall as being more like Weimar than like the US I don t know the details of their monetary history very well, though Were they on a fiat system, with flexible exchange rates Were their economies strong to begin with, and did they pursue reasonable fiscal and monetary policies. In the late 1970 s even the US had relatively high unemployment along with relatively high inflation Stagflation , they called it I suppose one can blame that on oil shocks , and not have to account for such conditions in a more general theory Were the Latin countries subject to such financial cataclysms when they had high unemployment along with high even hiper - inflation. Deos any of this discussion of abberant conditions change the MMT assertion Or explain the incidence of inflation under a fiat regime that chooses to use persistent unemployment to dampen aggregate demand. I never said inflation cannot occur unless there is full employment. I may have said something about monetary inflation from e xcess demand not being a problem at less than full employment. And yes, you can get what s called inflation from things other than excess aggregate demand, as you state. And the banana republic local currency inflations were usually were characterized by substantial dollar debt followed by selling their local currency to get the dollars to service the debt, and or the ruling class getting heaps of local currency for themselves via various means and then selling that for dollars This all tended to drive the local currency down with inflation flooding in through the fx window The, to keep domestic tranquility, they indexed govt wages to some inflation measure which fueled the inflationary spiral as well. In fact, last I read all the great latin am inflations were traced to said indexation. I can t cut and paste the chart here, but it s chart 2 at. It s the year-over-year percent change in CPI, unadjusted. Starts out in July 2010 at just over 1 Flat for a few months, then a steady rise to 3 6 , where it is stuck for the last 3 months. Excluding food and energy, it was under 1 a year ago, now is 1 8 , similarly shaped curve. The table following the graph says energy is up 19 yoy, though. Longer term, CPI is 225 of what it was in 1982-4 There were no yoy declines during those 28 years, and oil went from about 30 in 1982-4 to 12 in 1999 It is evident from long-term charts of oil and CPI that the rate of increase of CPI was moderated by oil price declines, which would support your contention that oil is very important As you say, it directly impacts transportation costs, which impacts the cost of everything that gets transported, as well as the cost of transporting ourselves around However, it is also clear that something else is causing prices in general to rise, even over periods of many years when the price of oil is dropping dramatically I don t think you can say that most of that CPI increase was caused by oil All of the increase from 1983 to 1999 was caused by something other than oil, and occurred despite a 60 or so drop in the price of oil over that time. Just looking at 1983 to 1999, Monetarists and Keynsians both have a ready explanation for the empirical data MMT would seem to say that it was not possible to have inflation during this time, with falling oil prices and less than full employment I would like to think that MMT is the proper explanation of how our modern world works if not, we are well and truly you know what, in 2-4 years , but I can t reconcile this. understood look at the annual increase in public sector compensation, including increases for the likes of social security. a public sector pay increase for the same work is a redefinition of the currency downward as described in my papers. also you have to look at the composition of cpi it s more about cost of living rising than inflation. MamMoTh Reply September 12th, 2011 at 11 29 pm. isn t that a bit of a chicken egg explanation. it seems to me increases in public sector compensation and socia l security are based on CPI or wage increases. and cost of living is the part of inflation most people are really concerned about. Inflation itself isn t about what s right or wrong, or about what people are concerned about. Inflation is defined as a continuous rise in the price level, whatever that might mean, and not a shift in relative value or an increase in a specific basket of goods and services. so if the peaches die, and there are fewer peaches, and the price goes up reflecting the lower quantity being allocated to the highest bidders, that s a relative value shift and not inflation. if, however, the gov somehow increases everyone s purchasing power so they have the funds to afford the same quantity of peaches, all that happens is the price goes up further And if that policy is continuous, the result is a relative value story turns into an inflation story. Unforgiven Reply September 13th, 2011 at 2 23 am. Is this a prices adjusting due to the rise of the middle class kind of thing. Aft er all, the rich can eat only so many peaches. ELR sounds like a good thing to me, but I am concerned what the ELR workers would be doing You seem to think that there is always plenty of work to be done, like on a farm, but if that is true why has the government not hired people to do it already. And once ELR workers are in place and doing it, if it is useful work, then what happens when they get hired away Who does this work in their absence, and why would we not suffer for lack of it. Mario Reply September 8th, 2011 at 1 25 pm. I d also like to hear what Warren says on this front. I ve heard Randall Wray talk about it being community based at non-profits, health clinics, red cross centers, community initiatives clean-up, beautification, maintenance, etc There is much that can be done at the community level and those people down on the ground there know what s best and can marshal things accordingly The federal government just writes the paycheck for them. It s really a great idea imho and small govt community folks would love it. There is always more than can be done to help our communities And this is a positive feed-back loop mechanism within the community since it will take in under-privileged people, train them, pay them, and help them progress up to wherever they want to go, which in turn helps the community, etc. It s all about creating systemic feed-back loops at every relative level of a community, state, federal, etc so that our very existence and participation in society has exponential benefits to that same society Currently it appears we are seeing the effects of a negative feed-back loop which essentially is what a deflationary spiral trap is plus de-regulation corruption in DC. yes, national service type jobs in general and yes, people will be coming and going all the time, so it s not all that efficient but far better than today s treatment of the unemployed who both do no useful work while unemployed and find it almost impossible to get private sector emplo yment once they ve been unemployed for a while. so the main public purpose is a transition job to help the unemployed move back into the private sector at the same time, hopefully a lot of useful work can be done, and we will also have a superior price anchor for the monetary system. Tom Hickey Reply September 8th, 2011 at 4 15 pm. The efficiency shows up not in the individual jobs but through the effect on the economy as a whole It is an investment program with a big payback A training program should also be included that upgrades knowledge and skills, adding value For a lot of chronically unemployed this is way out of the labyrinth in which there there is no cheese at the end of any of the tunnels other than those involving crime. I am thinking of an ELR without a gold standard. I see both the gold standard and ELR as the price anchor for the general price level. But I can t see why interest rates would be market determined with a gold standard, but could be set by the Fed with the ELR pol icy. MamMoTh Reply June 17th, 2011 at 5 58 pm. I will try to answer myself. In the case of a fixed exchange, the government offers to competing financial assets in order to satisfy net savings desires, and since it sets the exchange rate between them, the interest rate on one must be market determined. In the case of the ELR there is no such competition so the government can set the interest rate, and the only alternative the marginal holder of the currency has is to spend it. The gov is only offering to buy labor at a fixed price, not sell it. MamMoTh Reply June 18th, 2011 at 4 33 pm. OK, then by that logic if the government implemented a gold guarantee gold buyer of last resort instead of a gold standard it would be able to set the interest rate instead of letting the market determine it. It still looks to me the key point is that the marginal currency holder is not able to convert it back to something else at a fixed price, as I mentioned above. Yes, if gov just has a bid for gold or anythin g else it can set rates where it wants them. MamMoTh Reply June 19th, 2011 at 12 50 pm. This is interesting, it means a country could prevent its currency from appreciating against a foreign currency bidding for it and remain able to set interest rate what China wants , but the trouble comes from preventing it from depreciating like Argentina and Russia. the government is then fiscally and monetarily constrained to a policy that spends little enough on non-gold items, and adjusts interest rates, to maintain a desired buffer stock of gold The government must limit its non-gold spending to less than the demand for the currency created by taxation, so the excess demand for the currency is evidenced by gold sales to the government Excessive non-gold spending results in gold sales to the private sector. Isn t the interest rate in the case of a gold standard endogenous like in the general case of a fixed exchange rate What determines the interest rate What happens in the case of an ELR policy to the interest rate If it s not also endogenous, why. yes, rates are endogenous with any fixed fx regime and yes, that makes elr problematic as in a market economy fixing 2 prices is looking for trouble. see exchange rate policy and full employment. MamMoTh Reply June 17th, 2011 at 3 41 pm. I ve read it more than once The question is whether I am clever enough to fully understand its implications. The way I understand it is that under a gold standard the interest rate would be at the indifference level for the marginal currency holder to save it at that interest rate or convert it to gold. Is that right What is the equivalent with an ELR policy. Should we accept that with an ELR policy the government loses control of the interest rate which means that deficit do matter in terms of inflationary pressures. you got it re gold. an elr policy with a gold standard is problematic. but with today s floating fx the Fed sets the interest rate what marshall called the own rate some 200 years ago and the elr wage is the price anchor for the general price level. Several very interesting discussions. With respect to the ELR discussion. Government does employ Public Sector Employees The Ratio of Public Sector E mployees to Private Sector Employees has been growing for many years. The wages and benefits packages given to Public Sector Employees has been growing at a much higher rate than that of Private Sector Employees and in many cases the early retirements available to Pubic Sector Employees means that they work fewer years for greater benefits. The Government appears to be conducting what might be described as counter ELR policy to some extent by hiring too few at too high a cost while simultaneously demanding too much in Taxation from the Private Sector and or incurring enormous liabilities and deficits without achieving Price Stability or near Full Employment. On lending, interest and defaults. I d also like to know where the concepts of interest and default fits into your consideration of lending and monetary management. No matter how many loans are made there can never be enough money to pay back all of them with interest as the interest is not also created at origination Some amount of Loa ns can seemingly never be repaid in full - that is principal and interest - as the interest component does not exist having not been produced at origination of the loan This would seemingly make defaults an unavoidable component of the Debt Based Fiat monetary lending System. IF defaults are a healthy component of the Debt Based Fiat System then why would it not be healthy and stabilizing for Insolvent Banks to be forced to default and or be recapitalized via their Share and Bond Holders in lieu of Government Deficit Recapitalizations. I d appreciate it if You would offer or direct Me to previous discussion of your views on the issues of the providence of the funds for payment of interest and the necessity or lack of necessity of defaults in a Debt Based Fiat System. one man s interest payment is another man s income there s only a problem if total spending falls short of total income which happens all the time, as evidenced by unemployment, which is at the same time evidence that for the g iven size govt at the time, the economy is being over taxed. see the 7 deadly innocent frauds at this website thanks. Floccina You ask If you guarantee everyone a job how will you make people work on those jobs as you will not be able to threaten to fire them. Answer they are guaranteed a job in the sense that there is a job there for them, but not in the sense that they can sit around doing nothing or bash the supervisor on the head and get away with it I e I assume Warren s JG scheme would involve people being sacked for the sort of reasons that employees normally are sacked. Re your claim that oil prices ALONE cannot explain stagflation, I agree I cannot speak for the US, but in the UK there is a widespread feeling, with which I agree, that oil prices sparked off a wage price spiral Trade unions were much more powerful in the 1970s, and kept this spiral going. Re your claim that it would be better to replace the minimum wage with an hourly wage subsidy , I am actually finalising a pap er which argues very much this point Also Edmund Phelps advocated a subsidy of this sort a subsidy of all low paid labour See Rewarding Work How to Restore Participation and Self Support Harvard University Press. beowulf Reply November 29th, 2010 at 11 08 pm. Right, Edmund Phelps first proposal in the early 1990s called for a 3 00 an hour wage subsidy, tapering down for above minimum wage Adjusted for inflation, 3 00 in 1990 is 5 00 and hour now, let s see, in pound sterling that s to use current exchange rates 1 93 to 3 21 an hour now. Apparently in negative income tax pilot studies done in the early 1970s in the US and Canada, there was a reduction in work output ranging from 5 to 27 depending on the study and the analysis , Phelps edges around that issue by making it a wage subsidy added to paychecks so no wage no subsidy by the employer who is then credited on its own tax bill and its only for full-time workers not sure how Phelps plan treated unemployed or underemployed who are acti vely seeking more work hours Even with a wage subsidy, the minimum wage should still be indexed to keep up with inflation if not median wage growth or labor productivity otherwise employers are bound to use the wage subsidy to transfer more and more of their payroll cost to the govt over time the so-called Speenhamland Effect. with my proposal for an 8 hr job for anyone willing and able to work none of that is needed Just adjust the 8 as it suits public purpose. If you guarantee everyone a job how will you make people work on those jobs as you will not be able to threaten to fire them I think that it would be better to replace the minimum wage with an hourly wage subsidy. BTW do can you point me to any post-Keynesian writing that explains how we could have high inflation and high unemployment at the 1970s. zanon Reply November 24th, 2009 at 10 14 pm. Floccina There are a number of posts on the site regarding the 1970s I had the same question. The answer is that higher oil prices fed into hig her prices for everything Unlike rising prices for easily substitutable goods like bananas higher oil means higher everything. There were also a number of instruments and contracts that were linked to CPI, and those made inflation worse Just as the Govt has automatic stabilizers like unemployment benefits it also has automatic destabilizers like TIPS, SS payments, and any form of payment automatically linked to CPI. Also, aggregate demand was too low thus the unemployment There was nothing we could have done about the higher costs, but we could have run bigger deficits to reduce unemployment Cutting your real nose to spite your nominal face is a bad strategy, I guess. Floccina Reply November 25th, 2009 at 3 37 pm. Thank you Zanon, higher oil prices feeding into higher prices for everything could explain a little bout is it hard to believe that it was most of it because even at the height of its price, It seems to me that oil was too small a part of total expenditure to explain much of the inflation The move from US made to smaller foreign made auto in response to oil price along with the linking of the CPI to wages etc could explain much of the unemployment. zanon Reply November 25th, 2009 at 8 53 pm. Yes When you look at major elements of household net worth, you see that it is cars and houses I don t know what was happening to houses in the 70s although that is about the time mortgage securitization started , but if everyone changed cars, it would generate a big slug of AD. yes, the political choice could very well be continuous inflation, probably along the lines of today.
No comments:
Post a Comment